Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are four days away, and I figure it’s about time I throw some predictions out there. Also, I don’t want the entire front page of the blog to be all American Idol posts, so I had to post about something else.

Best Actor

• George Clooney – Michael Clayton
• Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
• Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
• Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
• Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises

The Oscar will go to: Daniel Day-Lewis. He’s the odds-on favorite, it’s a showy performance, and Oscar loves showy performances.

My pick: not Daniel Day-Lewis. I don’t like showy performances. I haven’t seen In the Valley of Elah or Michael Clayton, so I might go with Viggo. He acts with his eyes.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
• Julie Christie – Away from Her
• Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
• Laura Linney – The Savages
• Ellen Page – Juno

The Oscar will go to: Julie Christie. It’s something of a close race between Christie and Marion Cotillard. I haven’t seen La Vie en Rose, but I predict the Academy will go with the classic Brit playing the Alzheimer’s patient rather than the newcomer in a French film. The Academy is nothing if not xenophobic.

My pick: Julie Christie. Xenophobia or no, Christie is simply luminous in this film. And, like I said, haven’t seen the other. I’m really glad Ellen Page got nominated, because she’s incredible, but not ready for a win yet.

Best Supporting Actor

• Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
• Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
• Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
• Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

The Oscar will go to: Javier Bardem. Another one that everyone seems fairly agreed about, though the Supporting Actor category is one in which Oscar often likes to be contrary. I think I’d put up Tom Wilkinson or Hal Holbrook for wild cards, then, even though I haven’t seen the films–often the contrarian Oscar voters pick an old guy in here.

My pick: Javier Bardem. But I haven’t seen any of the other films. My non-nominated backup would be Paul Dano in There Will Be Blood.

Best Supporting Actress

• Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
• Ruby Dee – American Gangster
• Soairse Ronan – Atonement
• Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
• Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

The Oscar will go to: Amy Ryan. It’s probably between her and Cate Blanchett, and I’m really not sure who will win. I’m predicting Ryan, though, because in the supporting categories Oscar likes either newcomers (Ryan’s not “new,” but she broke through in public consciousness with this role) or older performers who haven’t won before. That could give Ruby Dee an edge, but since I hadn’t heard about her at all until the nomination, she probably doesn’t have enough buzz. It could also give Ronan a boost, but I suspect she’s still too young, and that Atonement has exhausted its hype.

My pick: This category is too close for me to be willing to pick without having seen the rest of the films. Tilda Swinton in particular is usually incredible, and I’d definitely need to see Michael Clayton and I’m Not There before choosing, because my gut feeling is to give it to her or Blanchett. I have seen Gone Baby Gone, and I personally wouldn’t give it to Amy Ryan, because the performance verged on histrionic to me (partially the character, I know).

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Atonement
• Away from Her
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

The Oscar will go to: No Country for Old Men. Although I’d think Atonement has a very good chance as well, since the book is so acclaimed. Or it could be a chance for TWBB to jump in, and I wouldn’t mind. Since I’m shutting it out everywhere else. (As you’ll probably notice, I didn’t like it very much; I’m hoping to get my January recap up soon, and then you’ll see.)

My pick: No Country for Old Men. I haven’t read the book in its entirety, but my friend who is writing her dissertation on Cormac McCarthy says that they stuck very close to the book and the things they did change made it better. That’s about as great an endorsement as an adapted screenplay could receive.

Best Original Screenplay

• Juno
• Lars and the Real Girl
• Michael Clayton
• Ratatouille
• The Savages

The Oscar will go to: Juno. I think it’s pretty much a lock at this point; it won’t win Picture, Actress, or Director, and the Academy will want to recognize it somewhere after its runaway success. Since its screenplay is the most touted thing about it, this is the obvious award for it to win.

My pick: Juno. It’s a bit too clever for its own good, but the only other one of these I’ve seen is Ratatouille. I’m curious to compare it to The Savages, though, which I suspect would give Juno a run for my vote if I had seen it.

Best Director

• Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Jason Reitman – Juno
• Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
• Joel and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
• Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood

The Oscar will go to: Joel and Ethan Coen. Because director and picture usually go together, and I’m hoping so hard for a NCFOM win. :)

My pick: Joel and Ethan Coen. No only is NCFOM amazing, they deserve one in general. I’m really glad for Schnabel’s nomination though, and I would sort of be secretly thrilled if he won. As long is it didn’t indicate a no-win for NCFOM, of course.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Beaufort
• The Counterfeiters
• Katyn
• Mongol
• 12

The Oscar will go to: The Counterfeiters. This is the only one of these films I’d even heard of before the nominations, so it’s likely to have more buzz than the others to help push it over the edge.

My pick: 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days. No, it’s not nominated. Which is such a total travesty that I am again boycotting the Foreign Language award. (Oh, and that’s leaving out The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which wasn’t eligible under current [stupid] Academy rules; if it were, I’d pick that with 4 Months a close second.)

Best Picture

• Atonement
• Juno
• Michael Clayton
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

The Oscar will go to: No Country for Old Men. There Will Be Blood had a surge of buzz a few weeks ago, but most people seem to be backing NCFOM now, which makes me very happy. Then there’s the possibility that they will split the “dark side of humanity” vote and leave room for Atonement or even Juno to pop in, but I don’t really think that will happen.

My pick: No Country for Old Men. It’s such a perfect application of cinematic filmmaking to a dark and ambiguous story.

more categories after the jump

Best Animated Feature

• Persepolis
• Ratatouille
• Surf’s Up

The Oscar will go to: Ratatouille. It’d be nice to think that an adult-aimed, graphic-novel-based, French-language film could give Pixar a run for their money, but it’s not going to happen. And Surf’s Up is dead in the water.

My pick: I’ve only seen Ratatouille, and it’s definitely good enough to win. I’d want to give it to Persepolis, though, because I’m an elitist. ;)

Best Documentary Feature

• No End in Sight
• Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
• Sicko
• Taxi to the Dark Side
• War/Dance

The Oscar will go to: No End in Sight. I’ve heard more rave reviews of this film than most films this year, documentary or fiction.

My pick: I haven’t seen any of them, so I won’t vote.

Best Cinematography

• The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Atonement
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

The Oscar will go to: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. I’m out on a limb with this one, a bit–I haven’t seen it, but every review I’ve seen has raved about the cinematography, and Oscar may just decide to reward the film, which was shut out of virtually every other category, for it.

My pick: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. A film about a paralyzed man whose only experience of the world is through the one eye he can still move better look pretty good, and it’s beautiful. Really, though, I’m pretty much fine with any of these; they’re all lovely.

Best Film Editing

• The Bourne Ultimatum
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Into the Wild
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

The Oscar will go to: No Country for Old Men. The editing award almost ALWAYS goes to the Best Picture winner.

My pick: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The editing is as good as the cinematography.

Best Score

• Atonement
• The Kite Runner
• Michael Clayton
• Ratatouille
• 3:10 to Yuma

The Oscar will go to: Atonement. A classic-sounding music score for a classic-feeling movie.

My pick: Atonement. Honestly, it’s the only one I can remember of the three I’ve seen. And the typewriter noises are genius.

Best Song

• “Falling Slowly” from Once
• “Happy Working Song” from Enchanted
• “Raise It Up” from August Rush
• “So Close” from Enchanted
• “That’s How You Know” from Enchanted

The Oscar will go to: “Falling Slowly” from Once. After all the drama about whether it was even eligible, it’ll win. The three Enchanted songs will cancel each other out, and I’ve heard very little about August Rush at all.

My pick: “Falling Slowly” from Once. It’s a great film, a great song, and it fits perfectly within the film. What more could you ask for?

Art Direction

• American Gangster
• Atonement
• The Golden Compass
• Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
• There Will Be Blood

The Oscar will go to: Atonement. Oscar loves its period pieces, and Atonement did look beautiful.

My pick: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street. Because it’s so perfect, and even if I had hated everything else about it (I didn’t), I would still have loved it for the set design.

Costume Design

• Across the Universe
• Atonement
• Elizabeth: The Golden Age
• La Vie en Rose
• Sweeney Todd: The Demon of Fleet Street

The Oscar will go to: Elizabeth: The Golden Age. Oscar likes to use this category to reward films that had flamboyant or intricate costumes but weren’t really very good.

My pick: Atonement. Come on, that green dress IS Cecilia. All Keira had to do was drape it on.

Short Things

I left out the live-action, animated, and documentary shorts because I haven’t seen any of them; some film bloggers have been writing them up, but I’m just not up on them enough to predict or vote.

Other Technical Things

I also left out the special effects and sound awards and makeup because I haven’t seen most of the films, and I tend to be really bad at predicting them anyway.