We’re only a day away from the Academy Awards, and I figured I’d put up a few prediction thoughts. We’ll be live-blogging the ceremony itself over on Row Three, so look out for that starting around 4pm PST. Plus, if you think you’ve got a good peg on the awards this year, throw your predictions into the Row Three Oscar Pool for a chance to win a sweet minimalist Reservoir Dogs poster (valued at $99). My predictions are already in the comments over there, but I’d like to say a bit more about them over here.
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
This is a gimme for Christoph Waltz. He’s been getting Oscar talk since Inglourious Basterds came out, he’s been winning all the awards up to this point, and if anyone else won this, it would be the upset of the year.
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
I haven’t seen Precious myself, but everyone who has considers Mo’Nique‘s win here a done deal. I’ll defer to that, since I think Maggie won’t win on a surprise nomination, Penelope won’t on the weaker of her two performances this year (and she wasn’t the strongest performance in Nine, either), and Vera and Anna will cancel each other out.
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
All the momentum right now is behind Jeff Bridges, whose Golden Globe for Crazy Heart makes him a heavy favorite for Oscar. Invictus hasn’t been very visible, A Single Man is likely too small a release, and Clooney is almost a token nom for Up in the Air (he does a good job, it’s not that Oscar-riffic a role). Jeremy Renner might possibly upset, but look for Bridges to take it.
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
This is a tough one for me. Sandra Bullock is going in as an unlikely favorite, having won the Golden Globe and some other critics and guild awards, but I’m still torn on whether the Academy will actually give it to her. Especially up against such a strong category. Mirren and Streep are simply perfection in everything they do, and the younger generation Mulligan and Sidibe are both brilliant in their films. Yet Bullock is the industry insider, the one whose film was a ginormous hit, and the one who apparently turned in a strong performance after a career of slight romantic comedies and thrillers. That kind of gets the Academy’s attention. So I give Sandra Bullock the nod for “will win”, but I stand firm that Carey Mulligan should go home with the prize for her mature-beyond-her-years, incredibly subtle performance.
Best Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up In The Air
It would be going against years of tradition for Kathryn Bigelow not to win Best Director after winning the Directors Guild award a few weeks ago. So that’s my prediction, and I’m sticking to it.
Best Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up In The Air
It’s unusual for the Best Picture winner to be different from the Best Director winner, and I’m fairly sure Bigelow is taking that Director prize. Even leaving that aside, The Hurt Locker has a whole lot of momentum on its side right now. Which still surprises me a little. I watched it this week, and it’s quite well-done and I enjoyed it a lot, but it doesn’t strike me as an Oscar film. But what do I know? I expected Up in the Air to be the frontrunner, and though it is nominated, it has had almost zero Oscar buzz.
Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
In The Loop
Precious
Up In The Air
I personally think Up in the Air has the best dialogue and the most timely script of any film this year, a throwback to Billy Wilder classics, so I’d like to see it win. And I think it has a good chance, especially since it will likely be shut out of other major categories and it’s such a classically-produced studio film that the Academy will want to honor it somewhere. This is its best shot. In the Loop is hilarious, but likely too vulgar for the fuddy Academy; An Education is a strong contender, but doesn’t sparkle in the dialogue quite as much as Up in the Air. I haven’t seen Precious, but have heard much more about its acting than its script, and I doubt District 9 is really in the running.
Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up
This would seem to be a showdown between Inglourious Basterds and A Serious Man – two films in which likely our best currently-working writer/directors turn in some of their best work. But Inglourious Basterds is inarguably Tarantino’s best work, so I give it the edge over the Coens this time around.
Film Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Editing often goes to Best Picture, so my prediction here sticks with The Hurt Locker. And really, it deserves it here, no problem.
Cinematography
Avatar
Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon
All of these are gorgeous-looking films, but I’m going to give the edge to The White Ribbon, not only because it’s the only black and white film in the bunch, but because it uses its black and white to the best possible effect. Also, it just won the Cinematographers’ guild award.
Art Direction
Avatar
Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
Another category where all of the nominees are quality contenders. The art direction was one of the few things I loved unequivocally about Avatar, so I would be neither surprised nor disappointed to see it win. I doubt Nine will win with its dark and stagey art direction, but Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus‘s brilliantly imaginative look (or looks – there are at least four or five distinct ones in different parts of the film) and Sherlock Holmes‘s steampunk Britain could mount a challenge.
Makeup
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria
This is an odd category…a futuristic sci-fi film, an Italian film no one’s ever heard of, and a realistic period film. This seems almost a gimme for Star Trek.
Costume Design
Bright Star
Coco before Chanel
Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria
Hmmm, will the Academy give their award for costume design to the film about the actual clothing designer? Possibly. Once again, the Academy has gone totally period in this category, and really, any of these could take it. But I’ll throw the prediction to The Young Victoria.
Best Foreign Film
Ajami, Israel
El Secretro de sus Ojo, Argentina
The Milk of Sorrow, Peru
Un Prophete, France
The White Ribbon, Germany
This is a fight to the death between Un prophete and The White Ribbon. Perhaps predictably, I’m guessing the one that I’ve seen will win – The White Ribbon. Even though it is the only one I’ve seen, it is really, REALLY good.
Best Animated Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and The Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up
SUCH a strong year for animated features this year. There were at least five others that would been nomination-worthy. I’d love it if one of the stop-motion films got it, and I think of this set, The Fantastic Mr. Fox is the one that will be remembered the best for the longest, but I doubt anything is going to stop Pixar from gaining another Oscar with Up.
Best Original Score
Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up
Going on the record now to say that if Avatar wins this, I’m puncturing my eardrums. Metaphorically. Sorry, James Horner, recycling bits of your other scores into bland program music does not make for the best score of the year. Honestly, I think I’d pick Sherlock Holmes myself – that was a really interesting score that picked up on themes and characterization in the film and rendered them musically. But I’m not sure it’s likely to win. Fantastic Mr. Fox might, but I remember the song parts of the score more than the actual score, and those don’t count. Eh, I think I’ll stick with Sherlock Holmes.
Best Original Song
Almost There, Princess and the Frog
Down in New Orleans, Princess and the Frog
Loin de Paname, Paris 36
Take It All, Nine
The Weary Kind, Crazy Heart
Two songs from Princess and the Frog might cancel out, no one saw Paris 36, and while “Take It All” was one of the best numbers in Nine, that was mostly due to Marion Cotillard, not the song itself. That leaves “The Weary Kind”, which based on the snippets in the Crazy Heart trailer, is actually fairly good. So we’ll go with that.
Sound Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up
I had a sound designer friend explain to me the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing; Editing is the creation and placement of sounds, whereas Mixing is the layering and direction of sounds. Got it? But I usually pick the same film for both categories (which exist separately largely because there are two separate unions for editing and mixing). This time, The Hurt Locker.
Sound Mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
The Hurt Locker
Best Visual Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
And here’s a category I think Avatar deserves to win, and I’m pretty sure it will.
Best Documentary
Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Most Dangerous Man in America
Which Way Home
The Cove has been getting rave reviews all year from all quarters, so I think it would be pretty shocking for it not to win.
Best Documentary Short
China’s Unnatural Disaster
Last Campaign of Booth Gardner
Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit à la Berlin
I have seen none of these, but I’m placing my bet on China’s Unnatural Disaster, a film about the Sichuan earthquake. Just for reference, Last Campaign of Booth Gardner is about Washington congressman Booth Gardner’s attempts to pass laws allowing assisted suicide, Last Truck is about a rural GM plant closing down and the effects of that on the community, nearly all of whom worked for GM, Music by Prudence is about a disabled woman in Zimbabwe finding strength by making music (that kind of uplifting story in the face of adversity makes this a contender, too), and Rabbit a la Berlin is about a warren of rabbits that lived between the Berlin walls during the cold war and their attempts to readjust after the walls came down. See, I did my homework!
Best Animated Short
French Roast
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death
All of these shorts are available online, and I collected them all in a post on Row Three, so check that out. My prediction is for Logorama, but they’re all actually really good.
Best Live Action Short
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants
None of these are available online. Some are available on iTunes, though – I saw Instead of Abracadabra when it was part of a set of Sundance shorts available for free on iTunes. It was quite good, but I’m not sure it can beat out Kavi, the story of an Indian boy growing up essentially in slavery. The others I wasn’t really able to find out very much about.
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